The Economist front page

carloseduardogoncalves

30 Dezembro 2015 | 19h40

Hard data is hard data. Hard data isn’t fond of rhetorical arguments in Latin.

Using the synthetic method and a sample of 117 countries for which data on growth rates is available in the WEO-2015 report, I asked Stata to enlighten us on Brazil’s growth performance after 2011.

As one can see, the combination of countries that best mimic Brazil’s growth rate up until 2011 (yes, I assume at this date sth, sth terrible! happened) has a respectable average growth rate during the last 5 years. Real Brazil, though, is lagging behind, big time.

The picture also makes clear that our dismal growth performance is not a product of a dire international scenario. Should this be the case, the Synthetic-Brazil would also be going under, like real-Brazil.

No wonder the lady has her photo stamped on the cover page of The Economist…

Happy new year !

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